據(jù)烴加工3月24日消息稱，EIA 預(yù)計可再生柴油供應(yīng)——國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)和凈進(jìn)口——將在短期內(nèi)超過生物柴油供應(yīng)。EIA預(yù)計，可再生柴油供應(yīng)量將在2022年增加到13萬桶/天，在2050年增加到14.5萬桶/天，這反映了近期可再生柴油產(chǎn)能的顯著增加。

生物質(zhì)柴油包括生物柴油和可再生柴油，這兩種燃料都是從相同類型的脂肪、油脂和油脂原料中提煉出來的。可再生柴油在化學(xué)上與石油柴油（稱為嵌入式柴油）沒有區(qū)別，這意味著它滿足現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和柴油發(fā)動機(jī)的使用規(guī)格，不受任何混合限制。生物柴油是一種被稱為烷基酯的化合物的混合物，通常以5%到20%的比例與石油柴油結(jié)合，分別被稱為B5到B20。

EIA預(yù)計，由于可再生柴油與現(xiàn)有的分銷基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和發(fā)動機(jī)的兼容性，州和聯(lián)邦對可再生燃料生產(chǎn)的更高目標(biāo)，稅收減免的激勵措施，以及現(xiàn)有煉油廠向可再生柴油煉油廠的轉(zhuǎn)換，可再生柴油供應(yīng)的產(chǎn)量將會增長。

促進(jìn)可再生柴油增長的目標(biāo)和激勵措施包括可再生燃料標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、加州的低碳燃料標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和美國的生物質(zhì)柴油攪拌機(jī)信貸。

EIA假設(shè)，推動采用生物質(zhì)柴油的是政策，而不是市場需求。可再生柴油和生物柴油競爭相同的原料，因此預(yù)計可再生柴油產(chǎn)量的一些增長將取代生物柴油產(chǎn)量。EIA 預(yù)計，這兩種燃料在較大的柴油市場中仍將是相對較小的一部分，到2050年占美國柴油產(chǎn)量的比例不到8%。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 烴加工

原文如下：

EIA projects U.S. renewable diesel supply to surpass biodiesel

The EIA projects that renewable diesel supply—domestic production and net imports—will exceed biodiesel supply in the near term. The EIA projects that renewable diesel supply will increase to 130,000 bpd in 2022 and 145,000 bpd in 2050, reflecting a significant increase in renewable diesel production capacity in the near term.

Biomass-based diesel fuels include biodiesel and renewable diesel, both of which are refined from the same types of fat, oil, and grease feedstocks. Renewable diesel is chemically indistinguishable from petroleum diesel (known as a drop-in diesel fuel), meaning that it meets specifications for use in existing infrastructure and diesel engines and is not subject to any blending limitations. Biodiesel is a mixture of chemical compounds known as alkyl esters and is often combined with petroleum diesel in blends of 5% to 20%, known as B5 to B20, respectively.

The EIA projects that production of renewable diesel supply will grow because of its compatibility with existing distribution infrastructure and engines, higher state and federal targets for renewable fuel production, incentives from tax credits, and the conversion of existing petroleum refineries into renewable diesel refineries.

Targets and incentives that contribute to renewable diesel’s growth include the Renewable Fuel Standard, California’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard, and the U.S. biomass-based diesel blender credit.

The EIA assumes that policies, rather than market demand, drive the adoption of biomass-based diesel fuels. Renewable diesel and biodiesel compete for the same feedstocks, so some of the projected growth in renewable diesel production displaces biodiesel production. The EIA projects that these two fuels will remain a relatively small part of the larger diesel market, accounting for less than 8% of the U.S. diesel production in 2050.