路透社記者約翰?坎普說(shuō)：歐洲柴油庫(kù)存量處于2008年以來(lái)的最低水平  

由于柴油產(chǎn)量仍需跟上需求，柴油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將進(jìn)一步上漲  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年3月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，對(duì)于那些消費(fèi)石油產(chǎn)品的人來(lái)說(shuō)，原油短缺無(wú)疑是一個(gè)壞消息。 但就這些產(chǎn)品而言，柴油短缺可能比原油短缺更具破壞性。 路透社的露威娜?愛(ài)德華茲曾在二月初報(bào)道說(shuō)，原油、天然氣和煤炭的供應(yīng)緊張已經(jīng)開(kāi)始蔓延到石油產(chǎn)品，尤其是中間餾分油，其中最熱門(mén)的是柴油。

這種最大市場(chǎng)是貨物運(yùn)輸?shù)娜剂希谝咔榉怄i期間，由于運(yùn)輸率下降，受到了嚴(yán)重打擊。 然而，封鎖結(jié)束后，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始從疫情最嚴(yán)重的階段復(fù)蘇，交通開(kāi)始好轉(zhuǎn)，柴油需求大幅上升。 然而，柴油產(chǎn)量仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跟不上需求量。 

路透社記者約翰?坎普本周報(bào)道稱(chēng)，歐洲的柴油庫(kù)存量處于2008年以來(lái)的最低水平，比過(guò)去5年同期的平均水平低8%或3500萬(wàn)桶。  

在美國(guó)，情況更加嚴(yán)重。 那里的柴油庫(kù)存量比疫情前的5年季節(jié)性平均水平低21%或3000萬(wàn)桶。 

在全球能源貿(mào)易中心新加坡，柴油庫(kù)存量比疫情前的5年季節(jié)性平均水平低400萬(wàn)桶。 

坎普指出，更糟糕的是，在過(guò)去12個(gè)月里，美國(guó)、歐洲和新加坡的柴油庫(kù)存總計(jì)減少了1.1億桶，減少部分迄今尚未被替代。 

路透社上周報(bào)道，由于市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)日益緊張，殼牌公司和英國(guó)石油公司兩周內(nèi)都沒(méi)有在德國(guó)市場(chǎng)提供任何柴油燃料貨物，原因是擔(dān)心供應(yīng)短缺。  

分析師說(shuō)，“能源配給以及最終導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與日俱增——這是大多數(shù)政策制定者目前似乎忽視或沒(méi)有把握的問(wèn)題。”

《每日郵報(bào)》援引咨詢公司Energy Aspects一位不愿透露姓名的發(fā)言人的話報(bào)道說(shuō)：“如果大國(guó)石油在未來(lái)幾周內(nèi)不能重新進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，我們將面臨在夏季前不得不定量供應(yīng)原油和石油產(chǎn)品的真正風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。” 

摩根士丹利回想起2008年2月的情形，當(dāng)時(shí)柴油價(jià)格達(dá)到每桶180美元，而原油價(jià)格徘徊在每桶140美元附近。 而且2008年也沒(méi)有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

摩根士丹利分析師說(shuō)，“重復(fù)的不是我們的基本情況，但值得注意的是，柴油價(jià)格一直密切跟蹤2007年-2008年期間油價(jià)的走勢(shì)。供應(yīng)緊張總是會(huì)推高價(jià)格，在通脹持續(xù)高企、能源價(jià)格不斷飆升的環(huán)境下，這不是什么好消息。”

在雙重影響下，柴油似乎正在成為推動(dòng)消費(fèi)價(jià)格上漲的火種。 據(jù)路透社的坎普稱(chēng)，甚至柴油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)也可能無(wú)濟(jì)于事。 他在最近的一篇專(zhuān)欄文章中表示，這只會(huì)讓柴油短缺轉(zhuǎn)向原油短缺。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage

? Kemp: diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008.

? A further rise in diesel prices is expected as production still has to catch up.

A crude oil shortage is invariably bad news for those that consume oil products. But when it comes to these products, a diesel shortage has the potential to be even more devastating than a crude shortage. Reuters' Rowena Edwards reported in early February that the supply tightness in crude oil, gas, and coal was beginning to spread to oil products, most notably middle distillates, the most popular among which is diesel fuel. 

The fuel, whose biggest market is freight transport, got hit severely during the pandemic lockdowns as transport rates declined. After the end of the lockdowns, however, as economies began to recover from the worst of the pandemic, transport picked up, and diesel fuel demand jumped. Yet production still has to catch up.

Reuters' John Kemp reported this week that diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008, and 8 percent—or 35 million barrels—lower than the five-year average for this time of the year.

In the United States, the situation is graver still. There, diesel fuel inventories are 21 percent lower than the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average, which translates into 30 million barrels.

In Singapore, a global energy trade hub, diesel fuel inventories are 4 million barrels below the seasonal five-year average from before the pandemic.  

What is perhaps worse, however, is that over the past 12 months, the combined diesel fuel inventories in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, have shed a combined 110 million barrels that have yet to be replaced, Kemp noted.

With the market increasingly tight, Shell and BP have shied away from offering any diesel fuel cargos on the German market for two weeks, Reuters reported last week, for fear of shortages.

"Risks of energy rationing and ultimately a recession are growing by the day - something most policymakers seem to be ignoring or not grasping right now.

'If oil is not integrated back into the market within the next few weeks, we are at a real risk of having to ration crude and products by the summer," the Daily Mail report quoted an unnamed spokesman for consultancy Energy Aspects as saying.

Back in February, Morgan Stanley recalled a situation in 2008, when diesel fuel prices reached $180 per barrel, while crude oil was flirting with $140. And there wasn't a war in 2008.

"A repeat of that is not our base case, but it is notable that diesel prices have been tracking the 2007-08 period closely in recent months," the bank's analysts said, as quoted by Reuters' Edwards, adding they expected crude to reach $100 per barrel in the second half of the year. Of course, both Brent and WTI reached that only days after this forecast was made.

A tight supply situation invariably pushes prices higher, which cannot be good news in an environment of persistently high inflation coupled with soaring energy prices that keep on feeding that inflation.

Diesel, it seems, is turning into more kindling for consumer prices. And even diesel fuel production growth may not help, according to Reuters' Kemp. It would only move the shortage from diesel fuel to crude, he said in his latest column.