據美國鉆井網站2022年3月16日報道，油價下跌的喘息可能是短暫的。這是挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）高級石油市場分析師路易絲·迪克森這樣說的。他說，油價下跌表明市場還沒有充分意識到失去大國石油供應對全球供應的潛在影響。 

迪克森在3月15日晚些時候發給美國鉆井網站的一份聲明中表示：“油價從每桶130美元調整……反映了來自市場的一系列信號。”

迪克森說，“石油需求風險是真實存在的。 據估計，嚴厲封鎖措施可能會使每天50萬桶石油消費面臨風險，而能源價格上漲導致的燃料短缺將進一步加劇這一風險。”

迪克森接著說：“交易正變得越來越不穩定，對算法交易系統的依賴可以將一個微小信號轉化為一種全面的級連式價格影響，這種情況在戰爭迷霧和金融市場不確定性中越來越頻繁地發生。”

迪克森稱，“如果歐洲不承諾削減每天進口的近400萬桶原油，供應風險已暫時緩解。這一風險曾推動油價升至每桶130美元。”

“美國通貨膨脹也是人們關注的焦點，3月16日美聯儲會議上預期的加息決定正在緩慢地推動美元走強，并給油價帶來下行壓力。”

迪克森接著說：“當前已經顯示出航空燃料需求的低迷，自2月中旬以來，航空燃料需求出現了嚴重下降的趨勢。”

市場定位和極端波動 

在3月15日發給美國鉆井網站的另一份報告中，渣打銀行的分析師表示，他們認為與過去一周的基本面變化相比，油價回調幅度的降低更多地說明了市場定位和極端波動的影響。 

分析師在報告中表示：“金融和大宗商品市場波動性的增加，導致交易商持有的風險水平大幅上升，并產生了結清部分頭寸以降低風險的相關動機。”

“由于最近幾周石油交易商大多在直接倉位和價差方面都持有高度看多的頭寸，在高風險環境下的優化主要涉及及時平倉，”分析師補充稱。  

“由于目前投機性空頭非常少，自然買家就很少，下行空間已經打開。 盡管所涉及的價格區間一直很極端，但近期的價格動態具有教科書式投機過度的所有特征，然后進行必要的調整，以重新設定極端頭寸，”分析師們繼續說。  

分析師們在報告中指出，具有諷刺意味的是，石油交易商普遍認為油價只會上漲，這導致市場動態決定短期內油價只會下跌。  

分析師表示：“盡管持倉導致價格下跌，但我們認為關鍵基本面因素本周基本沒有變化，而且還受到異常高的不確定性的影響。” 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Cheaper Oil May Be Short Lived

The reprieve of cheaper oil may be short lived.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson, who said falling prices indicate the market has not fully realized the potential impact of lost Russian barrels on global supply.

“The oil price correction from $130 per barrel … reflects a number of signals from the market,” Dickson said in a statement sent to Rigzone late Tuesday.

“The oil demand risk is real. It is estimated that a severe lockdown in big country could put 0.5 million barrels per day of oil consumption at risk, which would be further compounded by fuel shortages due to inflated energy prices,” Dickson added.

“Trading is getting increasingly volatile and the dependence on algorithmic trading systems can turn a micro signal into a sweeping cascade price impact, an occurrence that is happening with increased frequency amid the fog of war and financial market uncertainty,” Dickson went on to say.

“Without Europe pledging to cut back on its nearly four million barrels per day of crude imports, the supply risk that shot oil prices up towards $130 per barrel has been temporarily mollified,” Dickson said. 

“U.S. inflation is also in the spotlight, and the expected decision at … [today’s] Fed meeting to raise interest rates has been slowly strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting downward pressure on oil prices,” Dickson added.

“It is already showing jet fuel demand distress as they have seen severe downward trends in aviation since the middle of February, ” Dickson continued.

Market Positioning and Extreme Volatility

In a separate report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered said they think the correction lower in prices tells them more about market positioning and the effect of extreme volatility than it does about changes in fundamentals over the past week.

“The increase in volatility across financial and commodity markets led to a sharp rise in the level of risk held by traders and an associated incentive to close out some positions to reduce risk,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Because oil traders have mostly been positioned with a highly bullish bias in terms of both outright positions and spreads in recent weeks, optimization in a higher-risk environment has mostly involved closing out prompt longs,” the analysts added.

“With speculative shorts being very thin on the ground currently, there have been few natural buyers and the downside has opened up. While the price ranges involved have been extreme, recent price dynamics bear all the hallmarks of a textbook speculative overshoot followed by the correction necessary to reset extreme positioning,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the analysts noted that the irony of the situation is that the dominance among oil traders of the belief that prices could only move higher has led to a position from which market dynamics dictated that in the short-term prices could only go lower.

“Despite the positioning-led price fall, we think the key fundamentals are largely unchanged week on week and are also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty,” the analysts said.