據今日油價7月14日報道，截至目前，原油在2021年的表現一直很好，這與去年的情況截然不同。2020年，新冠肺炎疫情摧毀了所有大宗商品的需求，引發了持續性的價格暴跌。現在，大宗商品強勢回歸，而這種強勢在石油領域表現得最為明顯。過去幾周，原油已成為最熱門的大宗商品，因需求飆升超出所有預期，引發了對石油期貨的擠兌。據《華爾街日報》報道，6月中旬，紐約市場上看漲與看跌油價的比例達到了驚人的23比1。要知道，今年年初的這一比例為6比1。

　　這是價格上漲的投機因素，當然也是一個影響很大的因素。本月初，歐佩克+未能就8月開始將如何繼續進行生產限制這一問題達成一致意見，令所有人感到震驚。持不同意見的阿聯酋已經對減產協議的某些方面提出了批評，這次也是固執己見，并表示，除非對方做出讓步，否則拒絕做出任何讓步。

　　據知情人士透露，最新消息是，石油生產最大的組織歐佩克成員國尚未在協議上取得進展。消息人士稱，俄羅斯一直試圖將阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯拉到談判桌上，但顯然很難成功，因此本周不太可能舉行新的歐佩克+會議。

　　與此同時，出現了一些逆風局勢，市場出現了一些新的擔憂情緒，即新冠肺炎變異病毒株或將逆轉全球經濟復蘇，要知道，正式全球經濟的復蘇推動了石油需求的飆升，很難預料局勢將如何發展。路透社報道稱，由于這種擔憂，布倫特(Brent)原油和西德克薩斯中質原油價格(WTI)本周開始出現下跌，盡管跌幅不大，都不到一個百分點。

　　在股市方面，石油交易商一直在獲利回吐，這也給油價帶來了壓力。路透社約翰?肯普稱，上周對沖基金共售出3400萬桶WTI原油和500萬桶布倫特原油，以及1400萬桶美國汽油。坎普指出，拋售來自于看漲倉位，收盤至5500萬桶，而非看跌倉位的開盤，這表明市場情緒總體上仍然樂觀。

　　然而，據《華爾街日報》報道，在所有這些石油投資中，可能隱藏著一顆計時器滴答作響的炸彈。這顆炸彈將成為許多交易員用來押注油價將在2022年底達到每桶100美元的選擇。分析人士擔心，油價走勢逆轉將導致期權拋售，鑒于目前石油期權市場的規模，這將波及整個金融市場。

　　平心而論，油價突然下跌的可能性要比通常情況下由于供應緊縮而導致的油價上漲的可能性要小。通常情況下，價格上漲會導致產量增加。然而，這一次，更高的產量不會出現。美國頁巖油生產商非常謹慎，并不急于生產太多的石油。激進的股東瞄準了超級大股東，希望他們減少產出，而不是提高產出。隨著投機者試圖充分利用油價的上漲，瘋狂的價格波動可能會繼續。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Has Become The Hottest Commodity On Wall Street

　　Crude oil has been having a great 2021 so far—a very different situation to last year’s when the pandemic devastated demand for all commodities fueling a price rout that lasted well into 2020. Now, commodities are back with a vengeance, and nowhere is this vengeance clearer than in oil. Crude has become the hottest commodity for traders in the past few weeks as surging demand has topped all expectations, sparking a run on oil futures. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, in mid-June, the ratio of bullish to bearish bets on oil in New York stood at a staggering 23 to 1. This compares with a ratio of 6 to 1 at the beginning of the year.

　　This is the speculative component of the price rally, and it is certainly a big component. But the fundamental component is a big one, too. OPEC+ stunned everyone earlier this month when it failed to reach an agreement on how to proceed with its production control beyond the current month. The UAE, a dissenter who had already criticized some aspects of the production cut deal, this time really dug its heels in and refused to make any concessions until concessions were made to it.

　　The latest update from this front is that the members of the oil-producing cartel have yet to make progress on the deal, according to unnamed sources familiar with the situation, who spoke to Reuters this week. The sources said Russia had been trying to bring the UAE and Saudi Arabia together to the negotiations table but was apparently having trouble succeeding, so a new meeting of OPEC+ was unlikely this week.

　　Meanwhile, however, there have been headwinds at play, too, namely fresh worry that the delta variant of the coronavirus could reverse the global economic recovery that has driven the surge in oil demand that few expected. Because of this worry, Reuters reported Monday, oil started the week with a loss, although a minor one, at less than a percentage point for both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate.

　　On the stock market, oil traders have been taking profits. This has weighed on oil prices as well. Per Reuters’ John Kemp, last week hedge funds sold a total 34 million barrels of WTI and 5 million barrels of Brent as well as 14 million barrels of U.S. gasoline. The selloff, Kemp noted, came from the closing of bulling positions to the tune of 55 million barrels—and not the opening of bearish ones, suggesting sentiment remained upbeat on the whole.

　　According to the Wall Street Journal, however, there may be a ticking bomb hiding among all these oil bets. That ticking bomb would be the option that many traders have been using to bet on oil reaching $100 by the end of 2022. Analysts are concerned that a reversal of oil’s fortunes would lead to an options selloff, which, due to the size of the options market in oil right now, would send ripples across financial markets.

　　In all fairness, the chances of a sudden drop in oil prices are slimmer than they would normally be during a rally caused mostly by tightening supply. Normally, higher prices lead to greater production. This time, however, higher production is not coming. U.S. shale producers are being extra-careful and are not in a hurry to bring back too many barrels. Supermajors are being targeted by activist shareholders to reduce their output rather than boost it.

Wild price swings are likely to continue as speculators try to make the best of the oil rally.

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