據油價網7月25日報道稱，由于國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發布的樂觀預測，油價周二上午再次上漲。

周二，國際貨幣基金組織根據第一季度樂觀的經濟活動上調了2023年全球增長預期。國際貨幣基金組織目前估計，2023年美國國內生產總值將增長3%，比4月份公布的預測增長0.2個百分點。2024年保持不變，為3%。

消息傳出后，油價上漲，WTI突破79美元大關。美國東部時間7月25日上午10時52分，WTI的交易價格為79.05美元，當日上漲0.31美元（0.39%）。布倫特原油價格上漲至83美元以上，當日上漲0.29美元（+0.35%）。

油價將取決于美國石油協會（API）對美國原油和原油產品庫存變動的估計。

盡管高于之前的估計，但國際貨幣基金組織的預測仍然反映了經濟疲軟，因為平均GDP增長率低于前十年的均值3.8%。

國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家Pierre Olivier Gourinchas在周二接受路透社采訪時表示：“五年后，我們看到的實際增長率接近3.0%，可能略高于3.0%。與疫情前相比，這是一個顯著的放緩。”

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）在其預測中表示，雖然由于世界衛生組織（WHO）已結束全球衛生緊急狀況警示，產品運輸成本和交付時間已恢復到疫情前的水平，但通貨膨脹仍在蠶食家庭購買力。此外，高利率提高了借貸成本，而在疫情期間建立的儲蓄正在減少。

國際貨幣基金組織在其展望中警告稱，如果地緣政治惡化，或者極端氣溫進一步推高大宗商品價格，通貨膨脹可能會進一步上升。

梁金燕 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Oil Prices Tick Higher On Optimistic Economic Forecasts

Oil prices saw another rise on Tuesday morning on optimistic forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth estimates based on promising economic activity in Q1. For 2023, the IMF is now estimating a 3% GDP growth—up 0.2 percentage points from its forecast published in April. Its 2024 remains unchanged at 3.0%.

Oil prices rose on the news, with WTI surpassing the $79 mark. WTI was trading at $79.05 as of 10:52 am ET, up $0.31 (0.39%) on the day. Brent crude rose above $83, up $0.29 (+0.35%) on the day.

Oil prices will now be subjected to estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) later this afternoon on U.S. crude oil and crude products inventory moves.

While higher than previous estimates, the IMF's forecast is still reflective of economic weakness and below the average 3.8% GDP growth seen across the previous decade.

"What we are seeing when we look five years out is actually close to 3.0%, maybe a little bit above 3.0%. This is a significant slowdown compared to what we had pre-COVID," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in a Tuesday interview.

The IMF stated in its forecast that while shipping costs and delivery times have returned to pre-pandemic levels now that the WHO has ended the global health emergency, inflation continues to eat away at household buying power. In addition, high interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing, while savings built during the pandemic are receding.

The IMF included a warning in its outlook that inflation could rise further should the war in Ukraine worsen, or if extreme temperatures raise commodity prices further.