據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年7月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司7月8日發(fā)布了其最新的油價(jià)展望報(bào)告，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司分析師們預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將持續(xù)到2026年。  

根據(jù)惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司的最新預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格在2022年為105美元/桶，2023年為100美元/桶，2024年和2025年為88美元/桶，2026年為85美元/桶。

惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司分析師們?cè)谝环莅l(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的報(bào)告中表示：“我們本月上調(diào)了布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。”

分析師們補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“我們現(xiàn)在預(yù)測(cè)，2022年布倫特原油均價(jià)將從之前的每桶100美元升至105美元。對(duì)于2023年，我們將預(yù)測(cè)從每桶90美元上調(diào)至每桶100美元。這一修正反映出第二季度的強(qiáng)勁價(jià)格表現(xiàn)，以及對(duì)全球石油市場(chǎng)緊張程度和持續(xù)程度高于我們此前的預(yù)期。” 

分析師們表示，戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備的協(xié)同釋放有助于改善市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)，但產(chǎn)量仍然受到嚴(yán)重限制，協(xié)調(diào)釋放計(jì)劃只持續(xù)到今年年底。

此外，分析師們表示，歐佩克+繼續(xù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于其月度產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)，“同時(shí)人們質(zhì)疑，持有全球大部分備用產(chǎn)能的沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋是否有能力在近期大幅提高原油產(chǎn)量”。  

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示：“盡管我們認(rèn)為備用產(chǎn)能是存在的，但歐佩克+協(xié)議的限制以及沙特阿拉伯不愿耗盡其備用產(chǎn)能，這將限制今年下半年的原油產(chǎn)量上升。”

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中指出：“盡管供應(yīng)方面的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素非常樂(lè)觀，但需求方面的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素則更為復(fù)雜。”

分析師們說(shuō)：“我們目前預(yù)計(jì)，在疫情期間失去的需求正在恢復(fù)的支持下，今年和明年的消費(fèi)將強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，分別為2.3%和3.0%。然而，隨著能源成本上升和更廣泛的生活成本危機(jī)威脅消費(fèi)，這一預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)嚴(yán)重偏向于下行。” 

“此外，經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨重大逆風(fēng)，表現(xiàn)為持續(xù)的通脹壓力和金融環(huán)境收緊，金融市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)加劇，不斷惡化的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，加大了衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”分析師們?nèi)缡钦f(shuō)。

惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司參與的彭博共識(shí)預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為100美元/桶，2023年為91美元/桶，2024年為85美元/桶，2025年為72.5美元/桶，2026年為78美元/桶。  

除了看到今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為100美元/桶和2023年布倫特平均價(jià)格為91美元/桶之外，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究公司之前6月2日發(fā)送給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的油價(jià)展望報(bào)告中，看到2024年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為85美元/桶，以及2025年和2026年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格達(dá)到88美元/桶。

在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶104.25美元。今年以來(lái)，布倫特原油價(jià)格曾數(shù)次突破每桶120美元，但已從7月1日的111.63美元/桶跌至7月6日的100.69美元/桶。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Where Is Oil Heading Next?

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest oil price outlook, which outlines where the company sees the commodity going through to 2026.

According to its latest forecast, Fitch Solutions now expects the Brent crude oil price to average $105 per barrel in 2022, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.

“We have made an upward revision to our Brent crude price forecast this month,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone.

“We now forecast Brent to average $105 per barrel in 2022, up from $100 per barrel previously. For 2023, we have revised up the forecast from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. The revision reflects a strong price performance over Q2 and expectation of greater and more persistent tightness in the global oil market than we had previously anticipated,” the analysts added.

The analysts stated that coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves are helping improve market supply but added that production remains heavily constrained and coordinated releases are planned only until the end of this year.

In addition, the analysts said OPEC+ continues to fall far short of its monthly production targets, “while questions are being asked as the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the bulk of global spare capacity, to significantly raise production in the near term”.

“Although we believe the capacity is there, the constraints of the OPEC+ deal and Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to run down its spare capacity will limit the upside to output in H2,” the analysts stated in the report.

“While supply-side drivers are firmly bullish, the demand side is more mixed,” the analysts noted in the report.

“We are currently forecasting strong consumption growth in 2022 and 2023, at 2.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, supported by the ongoing recovery of demand lost during the pandemic. However, the risks to this forecast are skewed heavily to the downside, as higher energy costs and a broader cost-of-living crisis threaten consumption,” the analysts added.

“Moreover, the economy is facing major headwinds in the form of persistent inflationary pressure and tightening financial conditions, heightened financial market volatility, rising social unrest and slowing growth, raising the risk of recession,” the analysts continued.

The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees the Brent crude oil price averaging $100 per barrel in 2022, $91 per barrel in 2023, $85 per barrel in 2024, $72.5 per barrel in 2025, and $78 per barrel in 2026.

In addition to seeing the 2022 Brent price averaging $100 per barrel and the 2023 Brent price averaging $90 per barrel, Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price outlook, which was sent to Rigzone on June 2, saw the 2024 Brent price averaging $85 per barrel, and the 2025 and 2026 average Brent price hitting $88 per barrel.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent is trading at $104.25 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions this year but dropped from $111.63 per barrel on July 1 to $100.69 per barrel on July 6.