隨著看漲和看跌的觀點(diǎn)相互碰撞，石油市場又經(jīng)歷了動蕩的一周。

人們越來越擔(dān)心，潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會嚴(yán)重影響石油需求。

總體而言，市場似乎更擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性增加，而不是美國燃料庫存降至多年低點(diǎn)。

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)5月21日消息，石油市場結(jié)束了又一個動蕩不安的交易周，每天都在看漲和看跌之間來回波動，在漲跌幅每桶5美元的區(qū)間內(nèi)上下波動。周二早些時候，這兩個基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)均觸及八周高位，但隨后在當(dāng)天晚些時候回落，并在周三加入華爾街的拋售行情，這是由于投資者對可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退再次感到擔(dān)憂，因為頂級零售商在季度盈利報告中指出了成本飆升和供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸。

在截至5月20日的一周內(nèi)，石油市場參與者更多關(guān)注的是“衰退恐懼”頭條新聞，而不是每周的美國石油狀況報告。該報告顯示，汽油庫存再次下降，隱含的美國國內(nèi)需求增加，盡管美國汽油價格創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但隨著進(jìn)入夏季駕駛季節(jié)，美國需求只會進(jìn)一步上升。 

休斯敦Lipow Oil Associates總裁Andrew Lipow周四對路透社表示：“市場每小時都對各種不同的頭條新聞做出反應(yīng)，而石油市場每天的走勢變得更加夸張。”當(dāng)天早些時候，原油價格暴跌，美元走弱，油價隨之上漲。

總體而言，市場似乎更擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性增加，而不是美國燃料庫存在一年中的這個時候降至多年低位。投資者和投機(jī)者從石油中撤出，原油是一種風(fēng)險較高的資產(chǎn)，因為對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)更明顯放緩甚至衰退的擔(dān)憂加劇并抑制了風(fēng)險偏好。

然而，盡管市場關(guān)注的是更黯淡的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，但它忽略了——至少在過去一周——美國燃料庫存極低。

并不是說石油需求急劇飆升，而是指全球和美國的供應(yīng)能力，目前比疫情前每天減少了幾百萬桶。自經(jīng)濟(jì)重新開放和人們重返旅行以來，需求上升，加上煉油能力下降和餾分油市場非常緊張，導(dǎo)致美國產(chǎn)品庫存降至低于季節(jié)性平均水平和多年低點(diǎn)，東海岸報告的庫存創(chuàng)歷史新低。

EIA在5月18日的最新每周庫存報告中表示，截至5月13日的一周，美國車用汽油總庫存減少了480萬桶，比同期的五年均值降低約8%。盡管美國各地的價格創(chuàng)歷史新高，但按產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)量衡量，汽油需求仍在增長。

美國的汽油庫存處于2014年以來的最低水平，東海岸的庫存更加緊張，處于2011年以來的最低水平。

ING策略師Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周四寫道：“雖然煉油廠仍有一些增加運(yùn)行的空間（本周利用率增加1.8個百分點(diǎn)至91.8%），但隨著我們進(jìn)入駕駛季節(jié)，汽油需求應(yīng)該會增加，這表明我們將看到美國汽油市場進(jìn)一步緊縮。在這種情況下，我們可能會看到美國政府面臨進(jìn)一步壓力，試圖控制汽油價格。”

SEB大宗商品首席分析師Bjarne Schieldrop表示：“隨著2020/2021年度產(chǎn)能減少、石油產(chǎn)品需求復(fù)蘇，全球煉油系統(tǒng)嚴(yán)重緊張。我們現(xiàn)在正進(jìn)入夏季駕駛季節(jié)，汽油需求大幅增加，一開始庫存就非常低。”

Saxo銀行周四表示，對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長以及燃料需求的擔(dān)憂尚未反映在實際數(shù)據(jù)中。

“然而，在公眾消費(fèi)市場上，這種擔(dān)憂尚未反映出來，原油和汽油庫存仍在下降，而美國隱含的汽油需求，盡管價格創(chuàng)歷史新高，但仍然強(qiáng)勁。”

Saxo銀行的戰(zhàn)略團(tuán)隊指出，“市場可能會關(guān)注目前面臨挑戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險偏好的總體水平”。

祝精燕 摘譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Market Fears Recession More Than Tight Fuel Inventories

The oil market saw another volatile week as bullish and bearish catalysts collided.

There is a growing fear that a potential recession could weigh heavily on oil demand.

Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year lows.

The oil market wrapped up another volatile week of hectic trading, swinging up and down in a $5 a barrel range as it was pulled between bullish and bearish catalysts in both directions every day.  Both benchmarks hit an eight-week high early on Tuesday, only to pull back later in the day and join on Wednesday the sell-off on Wall Street triggered by renewed investor concerns about a possible recession as top retailers flagged soaring costs and supply chain bottlenecks in their quarterly earnings reports.

In the week to May 20, oil market participants paid more attention to “recession fear” headlines than to the weekly U.S. petroleum status report, which showed another draw in gasoline inventories and higher implied domestic demand, which—despite record-high gasoline prices in America—is only set to rise further as we enter the summer driving season. 

“The market is reacting to all sorts of different headlines hour to hour, and the movement in oil markets on a day-by-day basis getting even more exaggerated,” Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, told Reuters on Thursday, when oil settled higher after the U.S. dollar weakened, following a plunge in crude prices in earlier trading on the same day.

Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year low levels for this time of the year. Investors and speculators pulled back from oil, with crude being a riskier asset, as concerns about a more pronounced global economic slowdown—and even a recession—intensified and dampened risk appetite.

However, while the market is focused on gloomier economic outlooks, it has ignored—at least this past week—the critically low U.S. fuel inventories.

Not that oil demand has soared so much. It’s the capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic. Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels in the week ending May 13, and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report on May 18. Implied gasoline demand, measured as products supplied, rose, despite record-high prices across the United States.

Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of the year since 2014, with stocks on the East Coast even tighter, at their lowest since 2011 for this time of the year.

“While refiners have some room to increase runs (utilization rates increased by 1.8 percentage points to 91.8% over the week), gasoline demand should increase as we move into driving season, which suggests that we will see further tightness in the US gasoline market. In this case, we are likely to see further pressure on the US administration to try rein in gasoline prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Thursday.

According to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst, Commodities, at SEB:

“The global refining system is severely stretched following reductions in capacities in 2020/21, reviving oil product demand. We are now heading into summer driving season with much higher gasoline demand with a start-out of very low inventories.”

Concerns about economic growth, and consequently, demand for fuels, are yet to be reflected in actual data, Saxo Bank said on Thursday.

“On the ground, however, this worry has yet to be reflected with inventories of crude oil and gasoline still falling while US implied gasoline demand, despite record prices, remains robust.”

“Until then, the market is likely to focus on the general level of risk appetite, which is currently challenged,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted.