據今日石油網報道，今年1月下旬，圭亞那PPP管理部門推出了一項今年26億美元的預算，這個預算將消耗該國主權財富基金(SWF)中儲存的全部資金。 到今年年底，圭亞那SWF將獲得9.75億美元的新石油收入，比去年的余額增加70%。 然而，批評人士聲稱，圭亞那政府以犧牲可持續存款和代際間財富為代價專注于短期收益。  

SWF的前載支出結構并不尋常，尤其是對于一個歷史上一直不發達的國家而言。 隨著經濟的成熟，每年從該基金提款的比例將逐漸下降，上限為上一年存款總額的3%。

更重要的是，要確保石油資金用于創建一個不依賴石油和天然氣的多元化、自由市場經濟。 要學習如何做到這一點，圭亞那只需看看阿拉伯聯合酋長國。  

阿聯酋是由7個酋長國組成的聯邦，包括首都阿布扎比和著名的商業中心迪拜。 這個中東“國家”位于波斯灣，擁有980萬居民，每天生產近400萬桶原油。 阿聯酋是世界上第7大石油生產國，它有足夠的原油儲量，可以開采100多年。

相比之下，位于大西洋附近的南美國家圭亞那預計到2027年的原油日產量將超過100萬桶，約占阿聯酋原油總產量的25%。 圭亞那有80萬人口，比阿聯酋少10倍以上，圭亞那的人均石油產量將以巨大的優勢躍居世界首位， 這將把圭亞那的經濟轉變為一個主要的地區強國。  

阿聯酋的第一次商業石油發現是在1958年，第一次石油出口始于1962年。 1967年，也就是阿聯酋加入歐佩克的同一年，其首都阿布扎比被描述為一個“沒有道路、沒有電力、只有一所學校”的發展中村莊。 50年后，阿聯酋的GDP從140億美元增長到4110億美元，成為一個繁榮石油社會的象征，阿聯酋精明地管理資源，使以石油為基礎的經濟多樣化。

早在1976年，為了“維持國家的長期繁榮”，阿聯酋成立了阿布扎比投資局(ADIA)，并有意將經濟多元化。 阿聯酋現在擁有世界上第二大SWF，估計擁有超過8000億美元的公共資產。 此外，阿聯酋還有另一只SWF穆巴達拉投資公司，該基金成立于上世紀80年代，目標是投資于本地和外國公司。穆巴達拉投資公司總共管理著超過1萬億美元的資產。 

相較而言，圭亞那在石油資源管理方面相對領先。 在2015年首次商業石油發現6年以后，圭亞那創建了首只SWF，并已開始投資制造業、貿易和農業等日益增長的非石油行業。 然而，只有在全球范圍內具有競爭力，這些行業才會蓬勃發展。

圭亞那的大部分電力來自重質燃料油，使其成為波斯灣地區成本最高、污染最嚴重的電力之一。為了其非石油行業的繁榮，圭亞那政府將需要推動開發一個300兆瓦的天然氣發電廠，該廠將使用最近發現的石油伴生氣來降低高達90%的電力成本。 這個天然氣項目將是提高這個國家整體競爭力的根本。

圭亞那政府還應與私營部門合作，發展物流中心、更好的道路基礎設施和自由貿易區，同時向符合條件的公司提供補貼、稅收抵免和政府支持的貸款。 例如，阿布扎比政府為75%的中小企業銀行貸款提供擔保，擁有40億美元的研發基金，以幫助私營企業提出創新想法，并為工業企業提供40%的電力折扣。 它的合同也很牢固，為大型外國投資者提供了穩定性。 為了確保一個繁榮的未來，圭亞那應該調整這些政策以適應其自身的發展。 

圭亞那也可以使用阿布扎比的《2030年經濟愿景》為模式，開始制定正式的經濟多樣化路線圖。 通過使不同行業的收入基礎多樣化，提高勞動力技能，創造更多的私營部門就業機會(尤其是女性就業機會)，阿布扎比的非石油出口從2010年的13%增長到2018年的57%。 目前，圭亞那超過60%的GDP與石油和天然氣以外的行業有關，包括制造業、金融服務和貿易。 廉價的電力一直是這種增長的關鍵基礎組成部分。

盡管阿聯酋的發展道路不錯，但也并非完美無瑕。 像大多數其他的海灣沿岸國家一樣，公共部門過度膨脹，薪酬過高，而私營部門則依賴于一種裙帶關系體系。 大大小小的合同都由政府控制，這讓有政治背景的精英受益，而犧牲了具有創業精神的中小企業的利益。 圭亞那也有類似的特征，但圭亞那可以通過促進建立在自由市場和知識經濟基礎上的高收入私營部門，在其基礎上遏制尋租行為。 這首先要對教育進行大量投資，并為企業創建一個穩定、對投資者友好的監管框架。

阿聯酋通過海灣合作委員會推行的區域一體化，對于創造規模經濟和貿易效率也很重要。 圭亞那通往大西洋的通道及其新發現的能源資源，將對巴西北部各州具有吸引力，這些州正在努力克服能源不安全和復雜的海上航線。 巴西2022年10月大選的預期贏家與巴西北部各州關系密切，在那里他享有大量公眾支持。 在他的總統任期內，他很可能會把圭亞那-蘇里南“能源走廊”視為優先發展事項。 

區域一體化必須伴隨著有競爭力的私營部門、更便宜的電力、自由貿易區、更好的基礎設施以及對石油收入的透明使用。 到2030年前，圭亞那的經濟將增長500%，圭亞那將回顧這些“早期”的首批石油開采，看看哪些是正確的，哪些是可以改進的。對圭亞那來說， 按照阿聯酋制定的路線圖制定的經濟多樣化計劃是一條值得慶幸的道路。 

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網

原文如下：

Will Guyana become the next United Arab Emirates? only time will tell

In late January, the Guyanese PPP administration introduced a U$2.6 billion budget for 2022 where it will consume 100% of the funds stored in its Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). By year’s end, the SWF will be replenished with U$975MN in new oil revenues, a 70% increase compared to its 2021 balance. Critics, however, claim that the government is focused on a short-term gain at the expense of sustainable savings and inter-generational wealth.

A front-loaded spending structure for a SWF is not unusual, especially for a country that has been historically underdeveloped. The percentage of annual withdrawals from the fund will gradually decline as the economy matures, being limited to 3% of total deposits made in the previous year. Although the amount spent should not be overlooked, it is fundamental to implement better accountability mechanisms to guarantee transparent spending.

It is even more important to ensure that oil funds are used to create a diversified, free-market economy that is not dependent on oil and gas. To learn how to do this, Guyana should look no further than the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The UAE is a federation composed of seven different emirates, including the capital city of Abu Dhabi and the famous commercial hub of Dubai. Located in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East “nation” has 9.8 million inhabitants and produces nearly 4 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd). The UAE is the 7th largest oil producer in the world, and it has enough crude reserves to last more than 100 years.

Comparably, Guyana is a South American country located near the Atlantic Ocean which is expected to produce over 1 MN bpd by 2027, about 25% of UAE’s total output. With a population of 800,000 people, over 10 times smaller than the UAE, the per capita output of oil in Guyana will be the largest in the world—by a wide margin. This will transform its economy into a major regional powerhouse.

The UAE’s first commercial discovery of oil was in 1958, with first exports starting in 1962. In 1967, the same year it joined OPEC, the capital city of Abu Dhabi was described as a “‘developing village’ that had ‘no road, no electricity’ and ‘only one school.’” Five decades later, the UAE grew its GDP from $14 to $411 billion, becoming a symbol of a prosperous oil society that astutely managed its resources and diversified its oil-based economy.

The deliberate diversification of the UAE’s economy began as early as 1976, when it created the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) to “sustain the long-term prosperity of the country.” It is now the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, with over $800 billion in estimated public assets. It is supplemented by a second sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala, which was founded in the ‘80s with an objective of investing in both local and foreign companies. Together, they have more than $1 trillion in assets under management.

To unbiased observers comparing the two countries, Guyana has a relative head start when it comes to the management of its oil resources. It created its first sovereign wealth fund just six years after its first commercial discovery (in 2015), and it is already investing in growing non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and agriculture. Nonetheless, these sectors will only thrive if they can be competitive on a global scale.

Most of Guyana’s electricity comes from heavy fuel oil, making it one of the costliest and dirtiest electricity in the region. For its non-oil sectors to prosper, the government will need to move forward with the development of a 300 MW gas-to-power plant, which will use associated gas from its recent oil discoveries to lower the cost of electricity by up to 90%. This gas project will be fundamental in improving the overall competitiveness of the country.

The government should also work with the private sector to develop a logistics hub, better road infrastructure and free trade zones, while simultaneously providing qualifying companies with subsidies, tax credits and government-backed loans. The Abu Dhabi government, for example, guarantees up to 75% of SME bank loans, has a $4bn R & D fund to help private firms come up with innovative ideas, and provides a 40% electricity discount for industrial businesses. It is also ironclad with its contracts, providing stability for large foreign investors. To ensure a prosperous future, Guyana should adapt these policies for its own development.

Guyana could also start developing a formal economic diversification roadmap, using Abu Dhabi’s 2030 Economic Vision as a model. By diversifying its revenue base among different sectors, upgrading the skilled capacity of its labor force, and creating more private sector jobs (especially for women), Abu Dhabi’s non-oil exports grew from 13% in 2010 to 57% in 2018. More than 60% of its GDP is now connected to sectors outside of oil and gas, including manufacturing, financial services, and trade. Cheap electricity has been a key underlying component of this growth.

Although the UAE’s path has been good, it has not been flawless. Like most other Gulf Coast States, the public sector is overinflated and overpaid, while the private sector depends on a system of clientelism and connections. Contracts, both large and small, are controlled by the government, which benefit the politically connected elite at the expense of entrepreneurial SMEs. Guyana has similar traits of patronage, but it can nip rent-seeking at its foundation by promoting a high-paying private sector that is based on a free-market, knowledge-based economy. This begins with heavy investment in education, as well as the creation of a stable, investor-friendly regulatory framework for businesses.

Regional integration, which the UAE pursued via the Gulf Cooperation Council, is also important to create economies of scale and trade efficiencies. Guyana’s access to the Atlantic Ocean and its newfound energy resources will be attractive for northern Brazilian states struggling to overcome energy insecurities and complicated maritime routes. Brazil’s expected presidential winner in October, has a great affinity for Brazil’s Northern states where he enjoys mass public support. During his Presidency, it is likely that he will make the Guyana-Suriname “energy corridor” a priority.

Regional integration will have to be accompanied by a competitive private-sector, cheaper electricity, free trade zones, better infrastructure, and the transparent use of its oil revenues. As Guyana’s economy grows 500% by 2030, it will look back to these “early” days of first oil to see what it did right and what could have been improved. An economic diversification plan, in which it follows the roadmap set out by the UAE, is a path that it will be glad it embarked on.

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