據美國鉆井網站2022年1月7日報道，惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究機構發布了其最新的多年油價預測，這個預測將持續到2026年。
根據最新預測，惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究機構預計今年布倫特原油均價將達到72美元/桶，2023年將達到73美元/桶，2024年將達到75美元/桶，2025年和2026年均將達到78美元/桶。
惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究機構的這一預測與彭博共識大致一致。彭博共識在報告中強調，今年布倫特原油的平均價格將達到每桶73美元，2023年將達到每桶73.4美元，2024年將達到每桶74.7美元，2025年將達到每桶69.9美元。 2026年的預測并不包括在內。
惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究機構的分析師在本周早些時候提交給美國鉆井網站中的一份報告中表示：“去年12月我們再次將2022年布倫特原油價格預測維持在72美元/桶的水平，同時我們認為全年供應過剩的情況將保持不變。”
“前景仍然受制于供求雙方的多重風險。 盡管奧密克戎變種在全球引發了前所未有的高感染率，但到目前為止，住院率仍處于可控范圍內，與早期德爾塔變種相比，出現嚴重疾病的可能性似乎更小。”
分析人士繼續說：“各國對新疫情的反應各不相同，許多國家實施了軟性封鎖和旅行限制，這在很大程度上影響了航空需求。”
惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究分析師在報告中指出，供應仍然不確定，考慮到需求的不確定性，歐佩克+緊縮政策的潛在轉變是一個風險。
撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶82.72美元。
李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站
原文如下：
Analyst Releases Latest Multi-Year Oil Price Forecast
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest multi-year oil price forecast, which stretches to 2026.
According to its latest projections, the company now sees the average price of Brent hitting $72 per barrel this year, $73 per barrel in 2023, $75 per barrel in 2024, and $78 per barrel in both 2025 and 2026.
The forecast is roughly in line with the Bloomberg Consensus. The Bloomberg Consensus highlighted in the report projects that the average price of Brent will come in at $73 per barrel in 2022, $73.4 per barrel in 2023, $74.7 per barrel in 2024, and $69.9 per barrel in 2025. A forecast for 2026 is not included.
“This month we again hold our Brent price forecast for 2022 steady at $72 per barrel with our narrative for oversupply to build throughout the year remaining intact,” analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone earlier this week.
“However, the outlook remains subject to multiple risks on both the supply and demand-side fronts. While the Omicron variant is fueling new all-time high infection rates across the globe, so far hospitalization rates remain manageable and severe illness is appearing less likely than with earlier variants,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, the national responses to the new outbreaks have been mixed, with many implementing soft lockdowns and travel restrictions, largely impacting aviation demand,” the analysts continued.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts noted in the report that supply also remains uncertain, with a potential shift in OPEC+ tapering policy a risk given the uncertainty in demand.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.72 per barrel.
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