據油價網2023年6月20日報道，根據來自加拿大能源監管機構周二發布的新模型顯示，到2050年前，凈零世界將使化石燃料消耗從2021年的水平減少65%。

加拿大能源監管局(CER)周二發布了一份新報告，其中包括該監管機構對加拿大能源未來的首次研究，這份報告以凈零情景為基準。

這份新報告稱，如果世界確實能夠實現2050年的氣候凈零目標，那么全球化石燃料的使用量將在2021年至2050年期間下降65%。CER表示，這將導致全球原油價格在2030年前跌至35美元/桶，到2050年跌至24美元/桶。

特別是對加拿大來說，在這種價格情況下，加拿大的原油產量將在兩年內達到峰值，到2050年前，加拿大的原油產量將減少到120萬桶/天，這一數字是2022年的四分之一。這只是CER提出的模型之一，該模型假設需要付出額外的努力才能在2050年前達到凈零排放。

CER還提出了另外兩種情景。第一種情景假設加拿大到2050年前實現凈零排放，而亞洲兩大消費國不會——到2050年，油價將達到每桶60美元。在這種情況下，加拿大的原油產量將下降22%。

另一種情況假設在現有水平上不采取任何措施實現凈零排放。在這種情況下，加拿大的原油產量將在2035年達到峰值，到2050年前將增至610萬桶/天。  

這份報告沒有說明應該采取什么步驟來實現凈零排放目標，但CER首席經濟學家Jean-Denis Charlebois 告訴記者，這是一個“對加拿大來說非常雄心勃勃和具有挑戰性的目標”，并補充說，這將需要“每個行業，每個省份，每個人”都來發揮作用。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Global Fossil Fuel Use To Sink 65% by 2050: CER

A net-zero world will reduce fossil fuel consumption by 65% by 2050 from 2021 levels, according to new modeling from Canada’s energy regulator published on Tuesday.

Canada Energy Regulator (CER) published a new report on Tuesday that included the regulator’s first look into Canada’s long-term energy future that assumes the net-zero scenario as a baseline.

If the world is indeed able to achieve its 2050 net-zero climate targets, global fossil fuel use will fall by 65 percent between 2021 and 2050, the new report said. This would trigger a freefall in global crude oil prices to as low as $35 per barrel by 2030, and as low as $24 per barrel by 2050, CER said.

For Canada specifically, this price scenario has Canada’s peak oil production just two years away and would curtail it to 1.2 million bpd by 2050—a figure that is one-quarter of what it was last year. This is just one of the CER’s proposed models, and one that assumes additional efforts will be made to reach Net-Zero by 2050.

CER proposed two other scenarios as well. The first of these scenarios assumes Canada reaches net-zero by 2050 but the two countries in Asia don’t—sending oil prices to $60 per barrel through 2050. In that scenario, Canada’s oil production falls by 22 percent.

The other scenario assumes no efforts are made to reach net zero beyond what is already in place. In that case, Canada’s production would peak in 2035, and rise to 6.1 million bpd by 2050.

The report did not go into what steps should be taken to reach the Net-Zero goal, but CER chief economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told reports that it was a “very ambitious and challenging goal to meet for Canada,” adding that it would take “every industry, every province, everyone” to make a difference.